Tausi Insider

Inflation seems to have peaked, but the way back down for prices will take longer than the way back up. Spencer Platt/Getty Images John Rapley is a political economist at the University of Cambridge and managing director of Seaford Macro. This week’s U.S. and British inflation reports continued recent trends across Western countries, with inflation pulling back from recent highs. Next week’s Canadian figures will probably bring similar holiday cheer. Thrilled that central banks appear to be winning the war on inflation, investors have started their celebrations early, launching year-end rallies in stock markets and driving bond rates down. But while the news is unquestionably good, those celebrations may be premature. There’s a sting coming in inflation’s tail, and you can spot it in the bowels of the figures. The low prices of the past 30 years were effectively achieved on the backs of globalization and an increase of cheap labour. Now that both trends are reversing, we’ll never get...

Inflation seems to have peaked, but the way back down for prices will take longer than the way back up. Spencer Platt/Getty Images John Rapley is a political economist at the University of Cambridge and managing director of Seaford Macro. This week’s U.S. and British inflation reports continued recent trends across Western countries, with inflation pulling back from recent highs. Next week’s Canadian figures will probably bring similar holiday cheer. Thrilled that central banks appear to be winning the war on inflation, investors have started their celebrations early, launching year-end rallies in stock markets and driving bond rates down. But while the news is unquestionably good, those celebrations may be premature. There’s a sting coming in inflation’s tail, and you can spot it in the bowels of the figures. The low prices of the past 30 years were effectively achieved on the backs of globalization and an increase of cheap labour. Now that both trends are reversing, we’ll never get...